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4/5/10 Chase Recap

I had been watching these severe weather setups for a week or so, and was hoping they would verify, because they were right during my spring break, and I knew I would be able to get out and chase. The setup looked alright, except all the upper air support from the trough was still west of where the activity was to take place. A strong cap was also in place across much of the area, and the models were not in real good agreement of whether it was going to break or not. Nonetheless, I headed out, because I knew the next day would be promising as well.

There were two primary options on where to target. There was the triple point in extreme north eastern Kansas, or the warm front in north central, Missouri. I was split between the two, and favored more towards Maryville, MO near the triple point, but when I woke up in the morning, the models still had that area badly capped. The SPC had put out a 10% hatched area all along the Iowa, and Missouri border for tornadoes.

3/8/10 Low Topped Supercells in Oklahoma

Big Winter Storm Coming!

A potentially big winter storm is headed our way late tonight through Wednesday. The possibility of 9-12" of accumulation has been forecasted by the NWS in Grand Rapids. Snow ratios are estimated to climb to 20:1, which means 20" of snow for every 1" or water. This correlates to light, fluffy snow. I'm gonna put a final estimate of snow in Battle Creek at 8-11" of accumulation.

Here is the 12z run of the GFS model, which shows snow accumulation in inches. As of this latest run, it is predicting 12-15" which might be overdoing it a little, although even the NAM and GFS profiles as seen through BUFKIT (below) show about 13-14" by Wednesday afternoon.


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